Politics - News Analysis
Michael Moore, Who Predicted Trump’s Win, Says a Blue Tsunami Is Coming Like No One Predicted
Michael Moore is an odd duck, that is for sure. But he has his finger on the pulse of the working blue-collar people of America, especially the Midwest, you know, the people that decide elections? He accurately called the Trump victory very early, sometime around June-July of 2016, back when no one even worried that Trump could possibly win. Moore didn’t waiver over the Access Hollywood tapes. One call isn’t that much, but he also called Biden’s victory.
And now, according to today’s Guardian, Moore is predicting a blue wave of the type that absolutely no one is predicting. Why? We will let him set it out:
The thrust of his reasoning that this will be “Roe-vember” is amplified daily in the emails. In missive #21 (Don’t Believe It) on Tuesday, he addressed the issue of political fatalism, specifically the media narrative that the party in power necessarily does poorly in midterm elections.
Women, especially young women, are under-counted in the polls of the “likely voters” because, in this election, younger women are likely voters.
“The effect of this kind of reporting can be jarring – it can get inside the average American’s head and scramble it,” Moore wrote. “You can start to feel deflated. You want to quit. You start believing that we liberals are a bunch of losers. And by thinking of ourselves this way, if you’re not careful, you begin to manifest the old narrative into existence.”
It is nearly impossible to figure out what he’s talking about here, except Democrats often see themselves as losers which is true, except they’ve seen what Republicans do when they win.
“If I said to you six months ago, ‘you know Kansas, right? It’s a huge pro-abortion state and this summer by a margin of 60% they’re going to keep abortion legal’ you’d think I had made a crazy statement,” he says.
“If I’d told you at the same time that in the congressional election in Alaska, a hard red state, that it’s not only not going to be won by a Democrat but a Native Alaskan Democrat, again you’d have to question if I was out of my mind.”
Alaska was split three ways with two Republicans, so – that’s an outlier. Kansas is definitely the one that matters.
As if to reinforce his prediction, Moore said: “I’m sixty-eight, and I don’t have time to mess around. I’m deadly serious.”
In our mind, the entire election will be settled by whether women show up and specifically black women. Men are terrible voters, at least on the Democratic side (MAGAs are another story). This isn’t meant to put it ON women, no – it’s on Democratic men who historically don’t show up. That’s almost a given. We know that women show up. The question is whether enough and maybe a few men want to support those women (Hi!).
It would be fantastic if Moore were right again. The shift from abortion being the driver to worry about the future of democracy is almost the same question. They go hand in hand.